A recent newspaper article highlighted a significant demographic change in Japan. According to the preliminary results of the 2025 national census, Japan’s population has fallen to 123 million, a decline of about 3.1 million people over the past five years. The decrease is roughly equal to the entire population of Shizuoka Prefecture, the tenth most populous prefecture in Japan.
The trend is continuing. As of May 2026, Japan’s estimated population has fallen further to 122.81 million. During the same period, the number of foreign residents increased to approximately 3.9 million, up more than 330,000 from the previous year. Meanwhile, the Japanese population declined by more than 900,000.
These figures reveal an important structural change. The Japanese population is shrinking, while the foreign population is growing rapidly.
Given these trends, many people believe that accepting more immigrants will become increasingly necessary. Japan is already facing serious labor shortages in sectors such as nursing care and construction. As the population ages and the workforce shrinks, these shortages are likely to become even more serious.
Some observers argue that Japan has been experiencing a form of immigration, even if the government avoids using that term.
However, immigration is not a simple solution. European countries provide examples of both successes and challenges. Rapid immigration can create cultural tensions.
There is also concern about the long-term welfare of immigrants and their families. If adequate support for education and childcare is not provided, social problems may emerge in the future. Immigration policy should be accompanied by careful planning for integration and equal opportunities.
Furthermore, immigration may only buy time rather than solve our fundamental demographic problems. The root causes of declining birth rates—including high housing costs, rising educational expenses—still need to be addressed. Without reforms in these areas, population decline may continue despite increased immigration.
Japan faces unique challenges as well. The Japanese language poses a higher barrier to social integration than English-speaking countries. In addition, there remains significant political resistance to openly describing current policies as immigration policies, even though the reality on the ground is changing.
In the coming decades, Japan may need to find a balance between accepting more foreign residents and addressing the causes of its declining birth rate. The debate is often emotional and politically sensitive.
Nevertheless, demographic realities suggest that the question is no longer whether Japan should discuss immigration, but how we can manage it successfully while maintaining social cohesion and economic vitality.
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